Opening F1 Odds: British Grand Prix Betting Analysis | Odds & Ends

Hamilton to Beat Leclerc in Quali -130

We haven't seen Charles Leclerc beat Lewis Hamilton in qualifying since the Miami GP, which was at the very start of May. Lewis now has a streak of beating his teammate on Saturday going on five consecutive race weekends. Plus we have the obvious narrative that Silverstone is the home track for Lewis and a track where the seven-time World Champion has found some magic laps plenty of times, not to mention a record seven pole positions and nine Grand Prix victories. Those are video game numbers.

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Piastri to Beat Norris in Quali +105 

These two drivers have been separated by less than a tenth of a second the last two years of qualifying at Silverstone. Those results tell me that these drivers are very equal over one lap at this circuit, so let’s take a peek at recent form. The last two Q3 sessions have also seen the teammates separated by less than a tenth. Lando Norris had the edge in Barcelona and Austria, but the margins are incredibly close. Going back one more race to Monaco, Oscar Piastri slightly edged out Lando, but the gap was just a tenth and a half. Looking at the relevant data here, I don’t see how the odds should be anything other than even for both drivers. Typically, sportsbooks list those odds at -110 or -115 for both sides. However, that’s not the case here and we are looking at some decent value with Piastri at +105.

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Isack Hadjar to Finish Top 6 +125

The top four teams have dominated the top eight positions this year in Formula 1. When you look at the odds, Isack Hadjar is typically listed as 8th best in that group of drivers. If you want to bet on a driver to win the race, finish on the podium, or finish Top 6, you’ll see the same order of drivers with different numbers. I see Hadjar is currently 8th place in the Drivers’ Championship standings, but I’m trying to figure out how he’s still listed as 8th fastest with his current run of form. Over the last four races, (or six weeks) Hadjar has P5, P4, and P6 twice. In this run he has scored 38 of his 42 points on the season. Red Bull just released a massive upgrade in Austria, and although they had some reliability struggles in practice, they certainly showed excellent pace when it mattered most.

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Season Match Bet: Lando Norris to Beat Piastri +105

Piastri is a slight favorite in this head-to-head matchup despite being nearly tied on points. We know Piastri did not handle the second half of the calendar very well last year and couldn't find consistent success. This, of course, led to Lando stepping up and winning his first Drivers’ Championship. If something like that happens again, or maybe Piastri just isn’t very good at those specific tracks, this should be an easy bet on Lando. I’m not typically a big fan of “futures” bets like these where your money is tied up until the result is decided in December, but if you want someone to root for all season, this is something to consider.

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Bonus Bet: Tour de France Stage 1 Winner: Netcompany Ineos +300

We are spoiled this weekend with one of the best F1 races of the season as well as the best bike race of the entire year! The Tour de France starts on Saturday and will finish on July 26th in Paris. I’ll be glued to the TV to take in one of the greatest races on earth as well as the breathtaking countryside of France in July. Why does this bet make sense to me? Looking at Ineos’ roster, it’s safe to say they built it to win the Team Time Trial in Stage 1. Ganna, Foss, and Tarling are all specialists in the TT and are truly world class. Arensman and Kwiatkowski are both riders that any team would want on their roster for this stage. Lastly they have Bernal, Godon, and Vauquelin who are no slouch in the TT either. I think their three TT horses give Ineos the upper hand against the clock in stage 1.

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Enjoy the Tour and the British GP!

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Cover photo courtesy of Ferrari.