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Kimi Antonelli
The rookie's impressive form at North and South American races continued at Interlagos. Mercedes took a 1-2 finish at Las Vegas last season and the forecast predicts similar cool temperatures this weekend. Antonelli's P4 betting line to start the week is his highest of the year and his $1.8M value increase over the last five races is second to only Oliver Bearman.
Oscar Piastri
As Piastri attempts to claw his way back into the championship battle, McLaren's disappointing history at Las Vegas presents a huge hurdle. Piastri was knocked out in Q1 in 2023 and has never finished higher than P7. For perspective, Lance Stroll has scored more championship points in two races around Las Vegas than either McLaren driver. At this point, both Mercedes drivers carry a higher upside than Piastri and the Australian should be avoided this week.
Ferrari
Only 0.8% of the Global League Top 500 selected Ferrari at Interlagos, and that minority paid dearly in the form of a double DNF. Keep an eye on the Scuderia this week as a high-risk differential to McLaren, whose struggles at this circuit are noted above. A P3/P4 finish last season suggests that Ferrari can unlock a strategy to gently keep the tires at the optimal running temperature. Players considering a one-week hiatus from McLaren will look to either Ferrari or Red Bull as alternatives with the hopes that history repeats itself.
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Oliver Bearman
Bearman advanced to Q3 in each of the last four Grands Prix and Haas significantly advanced the car back in Mexico. The overtaking leader through 21 races, Bearman heads to a circuit that ranked first in overtakes in 2024 and second in 2023 only to a rain-soaked Zandvoort. A double digit score for Bearman appears inevitable as he continues his excellent rookie season.
Haas
Several team still hold the Extra DRS Boost and Autopilot chips, powerups that benefit teams with two strong drivers, but many fall short of the budget to afford four Tier A assets. Consider Haas as a powerful Tier B constructor that frees up enough budget to run the likes of Max Verstappen with George Russell and provide a stronger pairing for these chips. If Haas truly turned a corner since Mexico, a two-race stretch in which they averaged 49.5 fantasy points, they compare with the season-long averages of Red Bull (48.7) and Mercedes (48.4)!
Gabriel Bortoleto
The Brazilian endured a nightmare of a homecoming that culminated in two DNFs and -24 fantasy points. His 24-point target to avoid a $0.6M price drop seems next to impossible and could impact the flexibility of some teams ahead of the final Sprint weekend at Qatar. Consider dropping Bortoleto for the likes of Carlos Sainz and Esteban Ocon.
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