F1 Fantasy: 3 Big Questions Ahead of the United States Grand Prix

Heading into the weekend ranked in the top 200 out of 2.3 million teams, here is how I plan to approach the biggest decisions for this weekend.

Mercedes vs. Red Bull

The leading team in the Constructors' Championship starts the weekend with a key disadvantage. The Silver Arrows reached the price ceiling, so they can no longer contribute cost cap gains. Red Bull, on the other hand, are a lock to increase $0.3M for the twelfth consecutive race and have outscored Mercedes in back-to-back races.

The question is: can Mercedes outperform Red Bull to justify missing out on a surefire price gain?

At the top of the grid, Max Verstappen maintained his advantage over Kimi Antonelli in Free Practice 3. The Dutchman logged the second fastest time of the session, finishing among the top three drivers in all three practices.

But the deciding factor to this matchup is whether Isack Hadjar can close the gap to George Russell. Hadjar failed to finish higher than P9 in any of the practice sessions, and his radio message in FP3 was perhaps his most distressing signal of the weekend. He told his team, “I don’t know where is my car. I don’t know what’s happening.”

Following an unfortunate weekend in Singapore that saw Hadjar retire from the Sprint and fail to classify for the Grand Prix, his discomfort with the RB22 this late in the weekend is enough to tip the scales.

Verdict: Mercedes

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For a full breakdown of the best teams for this weekend and the top F1 Fantasy news, check out the latest episode of The Fantasy Formula. Have any questions before you lock in your team? Leave a question in the video below:

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Which Racing Bulls Driver Has the Highest Upside?

The young duo of Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad have emerged as popular midfield picks for F1 Fantasy. Lawson scored 35 points over the last two races, second to only Nico Hulkenberg among the drivers under $20M. He needs a single point or more to increase his value by $0.6M, and the Kiwi ranks third overall with $3.4M gained on the season.

Across the Racing Bulls garage, Arvid Lindblad will take his sixth internal combustion engine and faces a five-place grid penalty on Sunday. In Malaysia, Lindblad started at the back of the grid and scored a career-high 28 points by completing 15 overtakes and gaining 12 positions.

Despite Lawson's better form on Friday, the two were indistinguishable on Saturday. Lawson's fastest lap beat Lindblad's by five hundredths of a second. In this battle of recent form against overtaking upside, this is shaking up to be a win-win situation.

Verdict: Either driver should be a fine choice.

How do and Colapinto and Bortoleto's Penalties Impact Their Fantasy Value?

Lindblad is not the only young driver facing an engine penalty. Franco Colapinto will take a ten-place penalty for a new control electronics. The second Alpine car has struggled this weekend, with Colapinto stuck in the lower midfield. His practice form suggests overtakes may be hard to come by on Sunday.

Following a forgettable weekend in Singapore that saw the Argentinian driver retire from the Sprint and Grand Prix, his 39-point target to avoid a price drop and low likelihood for overtakes spoil his F1 Fantasy value this weekend.

In the case of Gabriel Bortoleto, he starts at the back of the grid after a 20-place grid drop. Bortoleto also retired from both races in Singapore, but with an almost completely new power unit, Bortoleto finished just outside the points positions in FP2 and FP3.

With a certain price drop ahead but a competitive car, high-budget teams may find value in a driver slated to line up between the likes of Cadillac, Aston Martin, Williams, and Haas. A score between 10 and 15 points is likely.

Verdict: Avoid Colapinto and only high-budget teams should consider Bortoleto.

With a high-altitude race coming up next in Mexico City and a few drivers expected to take engine penalties at Interlagos, F1 Fantasy transfers will be more valuable than ever to maximize performance across the triple header. When setting your lineup this weekend, the best strategy is to establish a foundation that will endure the next three races rather than chasing small gains in Austin.

Max Verstappen, the Racing Bulls duo, and the likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Oliver Bearman should be popular choices among the top F1 Fantasy lineups for Austin.