Opening F1 Odds: Austrian Grand Prix Betting Analysis | Odds & Ends

Pierre Gasly Top 10 -175

I never thought I’d say this, but Alpine has been the model of consistency so far this year. Pierre Gasly and the #10 car have scored a point at every single track this year, and have scored in every Grand Prix except for Miami where they were taken out by Liam Lawson while running P10. Gasly is in fine form lately finishing P8, P3 and P7 his last three races. The -175 odds tell us that Gasly has about a 64% chance to finish in the points this weekend, and I just think that’s too low given his form and consistency.

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Both Alpine Drivers Top 10 +225

I’m not a big fan of Flavio Briatore, but here I am glazing his Alpine F1 Team. They’ve been very good in 2026, finishing in every single Grand Prix except for the previously mentioned Galsy/Lawson incident. Franco Colapinto has scored points in four of seven Grands Prix in 2026 and is finally looking comfortable in Alpine machinery. Both drivers have finished in the points in three of seven Grands Prix this season, so I think there’s a good chance they can do it again this weekend. The implied odds here say that a double Top 10 has about a 31% chance to happen, and I think the odds should be closer to 45-50%.

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Kimi Antonelli Fastest Qualifier & Win Race +350

Look, you can bet Kimi Antonelli to win the race at +160 if you’d like, or fastest qualifier at +190. However, I think we can do better than that and find some hidden value here. Kimi has been, hands down, the most impressive driver so far in 2026. He had qualified and finished in the top two of every Grand Prix until his disastrous Sunday in Barcelona two weeks ago. He’s started on pole in four out of seven Grands Prix this season and has won 100% of those races.  Even if Kimi gets a grid penalty for impeding during Quali (which is very possible with 22 cars on the third shortest track of the year) there are generally plenty of passing opportunities here. There are three large straights where Kimi can take advantage of Mercedes’ excellent race pace.

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Aston Martin Total Classified Drivers: 0 pays +150 and 1 pays +120

This team cannot get out of their own way this season. Last time out the Astons only finished 42 of the possible 132 laps before both cars retired to the garage. In 2026, they have a total of five classified finishes and nine NC’s (not classified). You can bet both of these options and still make a profit if one of them wins. The only way this strategy loses is if Aston Martin has both cars take the checkered flag on Sunday. That happened exactly once this year in Canada, Stroll’s home race.

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Cover photo courtesy of the BWT Alpine Formula One Team.