Fantasy Preview: Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix

Colapinto Replaces Doohan

‍

In the biggest news of the off week, Alpine announced that Franco Colapinto will replace Jack Doohan for at least the next five races. Doohan exits the game with -14 fantasy points and $2.7M in value lost. At the time of publication Colapinto's price has not been announced, however many expect the Argintinian to assume Doohan's $4.5M price. The Tsunoda-for-Lawson swap before the Japanese Grand Prix, Colapinto's debut in place of Logan Sargeant last season, and Alpha Tauri's move from Nyck De Vries to Daniel Ricciardo in 2023 all resulted in the new driver assuming the previous driver's cost.

Assuming Colpinto joins the game at the price floor, he stands out as a top Tier B option this weekend. He needs just 6 points for the maximum $0.6M price gain since the required PPM for new drivers is 1.2 ($4.5M x 1.2 PPM = 5.4, rounded up to 6). Many teams may opt to run Colapinto and Gabriel Bortoleto to prevent price decreases and prepare to rebuild their budget in Monaco and Spain.

While Colapinto rejoins the grid with plenty of promise he still presents some risk to F1 Fantasy teams. His rookie campaign ended with 3 DNFs in the final 4 races and he suffered a massive shunt during Qualifying at Las Vegas. While Colapinto enters the game with a risk-free price, the dreaded 20-point DNF penalty awaits if he struggles in his first race with Alpine.

‍

Budget Driver Roulette

‍

Miami wreaked havoc on fantasy budgets. 11 drivers lost a combined $4.8M, while the biggest gainers included two of the least owned drivers in the game: Lance Stroll and Lewis Hamilton (both 11% selected). As strategists resume cost cap building let's review the most likely drivers to gain value this weekend.

Lance Stroll (11% selected) - The Canadian jumped up to P3 on the budget leaderboard after Miami with $1.6M gained on the season. He needs just 1 point for a $0.2M increase and 9 points for a $0.6M increase. A word of caution on Stroll: besides the wet season opener and the two Sprint weekends, Stroll has not scored more than 9 points in a race this season and sports books currently project him P18 in a race with little overtaking.

Alex Albon (31% selected) - Williams continue to impress in the early stage of the season thanks in large part to Albon's hot start. The Thai/British veteran sits P8 in both the WDC and fantasy scoring. He posted five double-digit fantasy scores in the first six races and enters this week as a high-upside Tier B asset.

Nico Hulkenberg (28% selected) - Hulk's 9-point effort in Miami means he needs just 10 fantasy points for a $0.6M price gain and 5 points for $0.2M. His $6.0M price tag enables more expensive assets, and many teams may opt for a Piastri, Albon, Hulkenberg, Hadjar, Bortoleto driver lineup. Unfortunately, like Stroll, Hulkenberg has struggled since his P5 fantasy performance in Australia - he scored 2, 1, -20, 3, and 9 fantasy points in the five races since the opener so he isn't a lock to grow his value.

Isack Hadjar (57% selected) - The French rookie enters this weekend as the most selected driver in the game thanks to his low price ($5.5M) and high average finishing position (10.33). Hadjar needs 7 points for a $0.2M increase, which he's accomplished in 3 of the first 6 races. Most teams will hold Hadjar this week with the hopes that VCARB continue to challenge for top-10 finishes.

‍

Weather Outlook

‍

The current forecast predicts a clear and cool weekend, a relieving sign for any players considering the Limitless chip. Mercedes have thrived in cooler weather, which could explain the gap between the betting lines of George Russell and Charles Leclerc. This race delivered just one DNF in 2024 (Alex Albon) so without any precipitation, No Negative can wait for another day.

‍

Betting Lines

‍

The McLaren duo enter this week with equal odds once again, a sign of confidence from Vegas that Lando Norris can win on any given week. Ferrari's recent slide lands Charles Leclerc behind George Russell while Lewis Hamilton opens with the same odds as the rookie that replaced him at Mercedes. Both Williams drivers are projected for top-10 finishes, a welcome sign to players that hope to gain back some of the budget lost in Miami.

‍

Driver and Constructor Tier List

‍

Lando Norris rejoins the Buy category since he only needs 19 points for a $0.3M increase and some teams can afford Norris with McLaren and Mercedes. Although Kimi Antonelli will be racing at home, he needs at least 10 points to avoid a price drop and an unrealistic 45 points for a $0.3M increase. All four Tier A constructors stand to gain value and both Ferrari and Red Bull stand out as alternatives to Mercedes.

The six Miami DNF's completely shuffled Tier B, sending Fernando Alonso, Liam Lawson, and Ollie Bearman to the Sell category and also demoting the top budget constructors, Haas, VCARB, and Alpine. In their place, Lance Stroll, Alex Albon, Nico Hulkenberg, and the Williams constructor provide the best hope for cost cap growth. Sauber moved to the fence simply because they reached the price floor of $4.5M but it's worth noting that the cheapest constructor in the game scored just 2 total points through six races.

‍

The Fantasy Formula returns to answer your lineup questions one hour before the start of Qualifying, this Saturday at 9AM EST/2PM BST, only on the official FanAmp YouTube channel. Be sure to head over to the FanAmp app to share your lineup in The Fantasy Formula base and have it reviewed during the broadcast. See you there!