Fantasy Preview: Canadian Grand Prix

All Eyes on Stroll

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Lance Stroll's status for his home Grand Prix is still unknown as he recovers from his latest wrist surgery. Stroll originally injured his wrists and hands in a cycling accident prior to the 2023 season. He underwent surgery and heroically participated in the Bahrain Grand Prix just two weeks later. Fast forward to 2025 and Stroll continues to suffer from the effects of that injury and required a second procedure to correct the issue.

To race in Montreal this weekend, Stroll would need to recover in two weeks once again. While we wait for an official word on Stroll, here are the drivers that could drive alonside Fernando Alonso this weekend and their fantasy outlook:

• Lance Stroll: Initial reports suggest Stroll will be fit to race but a final decision will not be made until later in the week. Stroll only has one double-digit fantasy score in a non-Sprint race this season and needs at least 32 points to avoid a price loss, so he should be avoided.

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• Felipe Drugovich: The 2022 Formula 2 champion has driven multiple FP1 sessions for Aston Martin, most recently at Bahrain this season. While Drugovich is scheduled to participate in the 24 Hours of Le Mans this weekend, he appears ready to step in for Stroll if needed. If Drugovich assumes Stroll's $9.1M price, his outlook is grim for this weekend but if he joins the game at Alonso's $4.5M price, he'd only need 6 points for a $0.6M price gain and could be worth a punt. Last season, Liam Lawson replaced Daniel Ricciardo and assumed his teammate's price rather than the driver he replaced, so this scenario is a real possibility.

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• Valtteri Bottas: Several rumors suggested that Mercedes could offer their reserve driver to their power unit customer as he prepares a bid to rejoin the grid full time in 2026. Bottas still needs to serve a 5-place grid penalty from an incident at Abu Dhabi last season, but a beloved veteran starting at the back of the grid at a low price could be a sleeper pick for this week.

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Keep an eye on this situation as it unfolds in the days leading up to Free Practice. Right now, any Aston Martin over $5.0M would be hard pressed to return much value considering the current form of the Racing Bulls and Nico Hulkenberg.

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Mercedes Reliability Stalls New Meta

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The once-reliable Mercedes constructor suffered a variety of reliability issues in the recent triple header. Kimi Antonelli retired at Imola, George Russell suffered a failure during Qualifying at Monaco, and Antonelli DNF'd again in Spain. Mercedes scored 39 fantasy points during this stretch, meanwhile Sauber scored 52 points in Spain alone. Mercedes need 55 points for a maximum price increase while Antonelli needs 47 to avoid the maximum price loss, so they fall to the Sell category in this week's Tier List.

Keep a close eye on Mercedes since a return to form unlocks the next wave of powerful meta lineups. The cheapest Piastri, Russell, McLaren, Mercedes lineup costs $117.4M while a similar team that swaps Russell for Antonelli costs just $114.1M. Players that grew their cost cap over the triple header will be eager to run more expensive lineups, but for now we all must wait for Mercedes to return to form.

In 2024, Ferrari outscored Mercedes in 7 of the first 8 races heading into the Canadian Grand Prix, but on that day Mercedes finished P3 and P4 while both Ferrari's retired early. Mercedes went on to outscore the Scuderia in the next four races, so perhaps this is the race they begin their comeback.

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Weather Outlook

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Canadian weather in June can be a bit unpredictable but the initial forecast calls for clear skies. Wet conditions contributed to most of the 5 DNFs at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve last season, so holster those No Negative chips unless the chance of rain increases as the week unfolds.

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Betting Lines

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No surprises in the top 10 to start the week: McLaren 1 and 2 followed by Ferrari and Mercedes. Isack Hadjar sits P9 in the World Drivers' Championship and is finally getting some respect from Vegas, opening the week with even odds to the Williams duo of Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz. Despite an injured wrist and an uncertain status for this weekend, oddsmakers bestowed more favorable odds on Lance Stroll than Gabriel Bortoleto.

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Driver and Constructor Tier List

Stay tuned - this week's list will be posted as soon as The Fantasy Formula films this week's episode!

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The Fantasy Formula returns to answer your lineup questions one hour before the start of Qualifying, this Saturday at 3PM EST/8PM BST, only on the official FanAmp YouTube channel. Be sure to head over to the FanAmp app to share your lineup in The Fantasy Formula base and have it reviewed during the broadcast. See you there!