F1 Fantasy Formation Lap: A Crowded Australia

The Breakdown: The Top Four and a Rookie

Not surprising to see Mercedes at the top of the time sheets in FP2, with hometown favorite Oscar Piastri setting the best lap at 1:19:729, followed by Kimi Antonelli (+0.214) and George Russell (+0.320). Yes, they are the most expensive constructor, but Mercedes looks strong in quali, they have the race pace, and will give you the best chance at a double podium. Russell’s the race favorite, an obvious buy, while Antonelli should be 3rd to 5th on Sunday.

F1 Fantasy players considering two A-tier constructors with Mercedes and Ferrari would feel even stronger after FP2. The Scuderia looks controlled, and Charles Leclerc is the most likely to challenge Russell for pole and race win. Hamilton is in a crowded group with Piasti, Antonelli, Max Verstappen, and Lando Norris, but his P4 in FP2 should give owners confidence. Ferrari is the clear second-best team and a great value.

The math in team building works out where Isack Hadjar is a popular play. He’s 8th of the top 8 in single lap pace, and that’s his target. Ironically, it’s Arvid Lindblad in the Racing Bulls giving Hadjar the biggest challenge, going P5 in FP1 and P8 in FP2. Haas were the clear best of the rest, with Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman finishing 10th and 11th behind Lindblad and Hadjar in FP2. Both team and drivers continue to be smart plays.

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The Price Watch: Mercedes Power

Buy: Mercedes

The question is whether Ferrari is close enough to Mercedes to take their value at $6M less and spend it on drivers? There is more variance with the drivers than with the teams. Russell is the favorite to win, but he is one of seven drivers who should challenge for pole and a race win. Mercedes has the best chance for both drivers in Q3, in the top 6, double podium, and a winner. 

Sell: Alpine

Aston Martin is the obvious answer here since they won’t even be completing the race, but a team that was a buy in our weekend preview Tier List that I am selling is Alpine. Mercedes power, yes, but the French outfit’s single lap pace and long runs have them competing with Williams, but behind Haas and Audi. There is no reason to pay $5-6M more when Colapinto is behind both Audi drivers.

Under the Radar: Racing Bulls

The case for Lindblad has been made, but Liam Lawson has looked strong as well. He was P13 in both sessions, and his pace has him right with the two Haas drivers. It’s only race one, but the Racing Bulls are an intriguing differential play against the popular Haas. Getting a chance at Q3 and top-10 finishes from the second least expensive team in the game is great value.

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Pick of the Week: Charles Leclerc

If you are spending your budget on Mercedes, saving on your top driver is a massive advantage. Russell is the favorite, but not by wide enough margins to make playing him at $27.4M a lock. Leclerc has shown he has the single lap and long run pace to challenge for the pole and the race win. The betting odds only slightly favor Russell (+250) over Leclerc (+350). At $22.8M, Leclerc gives you the second-best odds, at the 6th highest price, and saves roughly $5M over Russell and Verstappen. Don’t be shocked if Leclerc becomes the Oscar Piastri of the first part of this season.

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