Navigating the Classic Sports Bet: Favorites vs. Underdogs

Favorite vs Underdog: What Does That Mean?

We’ve all heard the terms “favorite” and “underdog,” but what exactly do they mean? A favorite is a team or driver that is most likely to win the game or race. In team sports like football, basketball, and baseball, there are very rarely evenly matched teams. This means one team is more likely to win the game, and that team is called the favorite. The team that is less likely to win, is our underdog.

In racing series like Formula 1, there are more than two teams in each event, so it can be a little trickier. But the driver that is most likely to win the race is called the favorite. It is very common to have multiple favorites right around the same price in racing. Let’s look at the Canadian Grand Prix, for example. The odds to win the race are: Kimi Antonelli +175, George Russell +225, Lando Norris +400, and everyone else is +800 or higher. I would call Kimi, George and Lando the favorites for this event and everyone else is an underdog. You might even hear about an “odds on favorite” which means one driver has negative odds to win the event, such as Shane van Gisbergen being listed at -150 to win at a NASCAR road course. Just a few years ago in the Red Bull dominance era of F1, Max Verstappen was commonly around -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) to win a Grand Prix, especially if he qualified on pole.

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How to Pick (or Pass) on a Favorite

What does this all mean for betting on the Indy 500, the Canadian Grand Prix, the Coca-Cola 600, or any other race? I’m glad you asked. You’ll hear talk building up to race day about who the favorites are in each of these races. The favorites earn that title because bookmakers and professional bettors think they have the best chance to win the race, if all else is equal. Casual bettors tend to love betting on favorites, which means they garner a lot of money and also tend to have some of the worst value on the board. (The board is a list of all the bets available.)

What I like to do before placing a moneyline bet is convert the odds to an implied percentage. I built a quick table in our inaugural Betting 101 article to help convert odds to win percentage. I use this percentage to think about how accurate the odds are. If I think the odds are wrong and provide less value than expected, it's a non-bet. Most every line I see fits this category. If you think the odds are wrong and provide more value than expected, you have found a betting opportunity.

Let’s go back to our Canadian GP example. Oscar Piastri has odds to finish in the Top 3 of +150, which converts to a 44.4% win probability. I would say that percentage is too low and should be closer to 50 or 60%. This means that I see good value at odds of +150. If I think Oscar has a 50-60% chance to podium, that means his odds should be between +100 and -150. These are the spots to pull the trigger and put some money down, betting responsibly of course.

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Other Ways to Bet On Favorites

You can bet on all sorts of things in motorsports, not just a driver to win the race or finish on the podium. After a quick browse of Indy 500 odds, I found bets available on: top manufacturer, pole position, top Chevrolet driver, top Honda driver, and driver head-to-heads, including Alex Palou and Pato O’Ward both listed at -115 for their matchup. More odds become available as we get closer to the race, so keep an eye on your favorite sports books to find things like qualifying head-to-heads, fastest driver in practice, and one of my personal favorites, last classified finisher.

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Picking An Underdog 

Lastly, we will go into what creates a solid underdog bet. Underdogs, by definition, have less than a 50% chance to win their bet. These bets are shown with a plus-sign in front of their betting number. For instance, betting an underdog on the spread would show up as +3 or +7 if that team is a three or seven point underdog respectively. On the moneyline, an underdog would be listed at +100 (bet $100 to win $100) or higher. You could see underdogs listed at massive numbers, like Lance Stroll to win the Canadian Grand Prix at +50,000 (bet $100 to win $50,000).

Since underdogs are more likely to lose than win, they carry more risk than betting a favorite, but the payoff is higher on a winning bet. Nothing is more exhilarating in sports betting than hitting a massive underdog bet. Imagine betting on a Nico Hülkenberg podium at the British Grand Prix last year. It’s very tough to pick the correct underdog bet, so how do we do it? I use the same strategy as I do for betting favorites. Take the odds on a bet, convert those odds to percentages, and ask yourself if that percentage is correct or incorrect. The same as the favorite bet, it’s smart to pull the trigger on a bet when you think the odds have more value than your expected win probability. This can be a tricky process, but betting underdogs is a well-known strategy among professional bettors. Trust your process on finding good value, and only bet when you think you have an advantage.