Opening F1 Odds: Miami Grand Prix Betting Analysis | Odds & Ends

Charles Leclerc +175 or Lewis Hamilton +200 to podium

We know the Ferrari has been the fastest car off the line every race so far this year. Ferrari has used that early advantage to grab a podium position in each of the first three Grands Prix of 2026, as well as a double podium in the Chinese Sprint Race. After McLaren (finally) showed some pace in Japan, they are now the 2nd favorites to finish on the podium with Piastri’s odds at -110 and Norris at +150. Are we sure the papaya cars are better than the Ferraris? I’m not convinced, and I think that battle is a lot closer than the odds suggest. 

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Pierre Gasly +400 or Ollie Bearman +500 to finish Top 6

These two drivers have arguably been the “best of the rest” so far in 2026, as they sit in 7th and 8th place in the drivers standings, notably above both Red Bull drivers. Outside of Mercedes, McLaren, and Ferrari, Gasly and Bearman have had the best pace and reliability combo on the grid. Gasly has finished 10th, 6th, and 7th in Grands Prix so far this year, taking home points in every race. Bearman has finished 7th, 5th, and DNF. These odds suggest each driver has only a 20-25% chance at a Top 6 in Miami, and I think that’s a bit low. 

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Gabriel Bortoleto or Nico Hulkenberg to finish Top 10 +350, Both Top 10 +1800

We talked about this last time on “Odds & Ends,” how the Audi has had great pace so far in 2026, but has struggled with reliability. After five weeks to iron out some reliability concerns, can Audi get both cars to the start and finish line on Sunday? I think they can. Bortoleto's results so far this year are 9th, DNF, and 13th. Hulkenberg has finishes of DNF, 11th, and 11th. Audi has had a car qualify 11th or better for every race this season. They may not finish in the points on Sunday, but at +350, there’s plenty of value for a team that has been sniffing the points all season. 

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Lance Stroll +100 or Fernando Alonso +110 to Not Finish The Race

I don't need to go into detail with how badly the reliability issues are at Aston Martin to start 2026, but let’s just say it's been a problem. Out of six opportunities to finish a Grand Prix, this team has finished just once. Maybe Aston has improved reliability in the five weeks since Japan, but they have so much work to do that I doubt they were able to make meaningful gains. Reliability has been so bad for this team that these odds haven’t been posted for the first three races of the season. Let’s take advantage of these odds while they still last. 

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Sergio Perez or Valtteri Bottas Classified as Last Finisher +325

Cadillac doesn’t have the pace to compete for points so far in 2026, but they do have something that Aston Martin does not: reliability. In the six opportunities to finish a Grand Prix, they have 5 classified results and one DNF. In Australia, Perez was the last classified driver. In China it was Bottas. In Japan it was Albon, but Bottas was second to last. There’s a good chance these drivers finish the race near the back, and I think +325 odds provide some good value.

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Cover photo courtesy of Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool.