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It all comes down to the finale at Abu Dhabi. Three drivers enter the weekend with a chance to win the sport's greatest prize, while in F1 Fantasy the top seven are separated by under 100 points. Strap in as we prepare for the final push of the season and start with the biggest question of the week: who will claim the title at Yas Marina?
Predicting the Finale Fallout
Lando Norris holds a 12-point lead over Max Verstappen and a 16-point lead over his teammate, Oscar Piastri, as he looks to earn his first Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship. A Verstappen win with Norris finishing P4 or lower would hand the Red Bull veteran his fifth straight title, while Piastri needs to at least finish in the top 2 for a chance at clawing back a title that he seemed destined for as recently as two months ago.
As we prepare our F1 Fantasy lineups for this weekend a few things are clear:
- Barring a disaster, teams with at least two of Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri should see the best results.
- Whoever wins the title, regardless of finishing position, should win Driver of the Day honors.
The cheapest NOR-VER-MCL-MER lineup starts at $139.1M, so teams that prioritized budget building earlier in the year enter the week with an advantage. Most teams will likely settle into a NOR-PIA-MCL-MER lineup or a VER-PIA-MCL-MER build. The odds of Norris (-300) winning the title suggest Vegas is confident in a podium finish, so keep an eye on the Briton as the top DRS Boost option.
As we return to normal from a Sprint weekend, the three Free Practice sessions will be crucial to making the right decision. Make note of any changes to the betting lines after each session, which will suggest a driver is performing better or worse than initially expected. Driver comments after FP2 as well as Lawrence Barretto's Qualifying and Race Pace simulations on F1.com also provide an indication of how the drivers look ahead of the lineup lock deadline.
A few options stand out depending on your budget:
- NOR-PIA-MCL-MER: Assumes a disaster for Verstappen
- NOR-VER-RBR-MER: Affordable for more teams, assumes a disaster for Piastri that takes down the McLaren constructor
- VER-PIA-RBR-MER: Same scenario as above, assumes disaster for Norris
- NOR-VER-MCL-VCARB: Best driver combination for low budget teams with a consistently strong Tier B constructor
Abu Dhabi History
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Let's start at the top, where all three championship contenders enter the weekend with strong results at Yas Marina. Max Verstappen broke a streak of six consecutive Abu Dhabi podiums last season but with the championship already wrapped up the Dutchman had little to fight for. Prior to 2024, Verstappen qualified on pole and won four consecutive Grands Prix around this circuit. Since joining Red Bull in 2016, Verstappen finished among the top 6 in every race here.
Lando Norris claimed pole position in the 2024 finale and ran to victory, leading every lap to conclude an impressive season. Norris has reached Q3 and scored championship points in all six appearances in Abu Dhabi, but never finished higher than P5 prior to last season's win.
Oscar Piastri started P2 and P3 in his two appearances at Abu Dhabi but lost places in each race and has yet to crack 20 fantasy points. Last season, Piastri and Verstappen made contact, sending the Australian to the back of the grid, where he later earned a 10-second penalty during a scrap with Franco Colapinto. He salvaged his afternoon by finishing P10 and completing 10 overtakes
For teams considering a big punt amid a dismal year for Ferrari, Charles Leclerc's record at Yas Marina warrants a mention. Leclerc finished P2 in 2023, earning him 29 fantasy points, while 2024 featured an almighty display of overtaking. Leclerc started on the last row of the grid and gained six positions in the first two corners of lap 1. He finished with 14 overtakes for a season-high 55 fantasy points.
Further down the grid, Fernando Alonso has only failed to score championship points in 4 out of his 14 trips to Abu Dhabi. Other veterans with recent points finishes in this race include Nico Hulkenberg, Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly, and Lance Stroll.
Weather Outlook
Another warm and dry weekend awaits for the finale. This removes many variables around tire strategy and reduces the risk of incidents on lap 1. At this point, any remaining chip should be played in an attempt to extract value from it.
Betting Lines
We saw earlier that Norris holds the best odds of winning the title yet Verstappen opens the week with the best odds of winning the race. This suggests Norris will take a risk adverse strategy to ensure a P3 finish and lock up the title, opening the door for his title rivals to finish ahead of him on track. A title win and Driver of the Day for Norris would close the scoring gap to a Verstappen win, so this battle is razor thin as we prepare for Free Practice.
In the closing weeks of the season the trio of Carlos Sainz, Isack Hadjar, and Fernando Alonso ascend to the top options outside of the big four constructors. Over his last three races, Sainz has averaged 19.3 points per race, while Alonso looks for his second straight double digit fantasy score.
The Fantasy Formula is back for the final Deadline Q&A Stream of the season. The action begins one hour before Qualifying, this Saturday at 8AM EST/1PM GMT, only on the official FanAmp YouTube channel. See you there!
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