Opening F1 Odds: Monaco Grand Prix Betting Analysis | Odds & Ends

Ferrari the Favorite? 

I was a bit surprised to glance at the odds to win the race and see Charles Leclerc as the +185 favorite after Mercedes has dominated every track so far this season. Behind Leclerc is Scuderia teammate, Lewis Hamilton, at +400. Kimi Antonelli and George Russell are listed at +500 and +550, respectively. Qualifying odds are very similar to GP odds. With Qualifying essentially deciding the Grand Prix, this becomes the most important Saturday of the year. Ferrari has been quick off the line this year, but they haven’t been nearly as much of a threat in Qualifying. Neither driver has qualified for a Grand Prix on the front row this season, but the odds tell us that is likely to change on Saturday. If you like Ferrari to be fastest this weekend, it may be a good idea to bet them to be fastest in Quali in case we see some classic Ferrari botched strategy on Sunday. If you think Mercedes continues their dominance this weekend, then I’ve got just the thing for you.

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Antonelli/Russell Fastest Qualifier & Win Grand Prix +1100

Ferrari are favorites, but what if they disappoint? Listen, Ferrari has screwed up on a number of occasions. It’s essentially part of their brand that they make silly mistakes and it costs them points in the standings. That’s always a very real possibility, especially if you think Mercedes still holds an advantage over the grid in Monaco.

We’ve seen Mercedes dominate nearly every track so far this season. Young phenom, Kimi Antonelli has won four Grands Prix in a row. And now I’m just supposed to accept that the Ferrari is the superior car just because its a shorter, tighter circuit with more coasting and heavy braking? I just can’t get myself to trust Ferrari, so that leaves me trusting the team that has won every GP this season including Kimi’s four straight.

Kimi and George are both around +500 to win the race. I think that’s a fine bet, but I think we can do better. It has been nearly impossible to overtake at this track over the last decade or so. The only overtakes that have taken place were either in pit lane or in heavy rain. With a short run to turn 1, there’s an excellent chance this race is won from the front row. Whichever car leads into turn 1, lap 1, can only be stopped by bad luck. I like Kimi slightly better than George, but if either of these Mercedes starts on pole, their odds to win this race won't be anywhere near +1100.

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Valtteri Bottas Last Classified Finisher +175

This bet has won the last two times I've posted it, and the odds continue to shrink. Valtteri Bottas was +375 in Miami, +200 in Canada and now down to +175. I think there’s still value here with this number, but I also like Sergio Perez at +350. He has been running considerably better than Bottas lately, but you never know the true reasons behind that. It could be getting upgrades, or preferred tracks, or the North American time zone. I think Cadillac is currently the slowest car on the grid now that Aston Martin can run reliable laps. Which Caddy finishes last on Sunday?

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One Classified Driver +160 for Aston Martin, Zero Classified Drivers +750 

Aston Martin has only completed a Grand Prix with both drivers once this year. Yet their odds to have both cars finish this race are -150. Make it make sense. Their power unit, although greatly improved from Australia, still has numerous reliability concerns. I don’t see this team competing for points anytime soon. Lance Stroll was 4 laps down in Canada while Fernando Alonso only completed 23 laps before retiring the car. If they’re not close to the points on Sunday and overtaking is not an option, will they continue to keep both cars on track or decide to retire one or both to save parts for later in the season?

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Cover image courtesy of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team.